monte carlo

How do I access the Monte Carlo Spreadsheet

On page 34 of the User Manual is says "Thus, we have a spreadsheet you can use [linked here] to get the data based on readily available numbers from Morningstar, Yahoo, or your fund prospectus." The link doesn't work (kicks me out to page that denies access whether I'm logged on or not.
How do I access the Monte Carlo Spreadsheet?

Method for defining new assets for Monte Carlo

I am running version 2.29.4 of ESPLannerPlus (Build 492). I was starting to use the Monte Carlo section to add my real securities. After I clicked on the "New" button, I noticed this at the top of the "Define a new asset" dialog box:
Important Note: This style of user asset will be phased out in a coming release. This will be replaced by entering assets with their full earnings history. This new style of asset will mesh more completely with the Monte Carlo process. You may wish to wait until the new feature to add new user assets.

Monte Carlo PDF report - why not designate the portfolio(s) which are actually used?

Page 10 of the PDF report lists all 10 portfolios, whether they are used or not. Why not only list the portfolios that are used and designate which is used for Regular Assets and which is used for Retirement Accounts?

Mean Returns in Monte Carlo Build Portfolios tab stale ?


I am running 2.28.0. When building a new portfolio in the Build Portfolios tab of Monte Carlo screen, I added Large Cap Stocks as one of the assets. The mean return column showed 8.90%. But on an older portfolio with Large Cap Stocks that I built a couple years ago the mean return column showed 8.70%. On the older portfolio, when I delete and re-add Large Cap Stocks, the mean return is 8.90 %.

Questions on Monte Carlo, Inputs and Assumptions report

I have a couple of specific questions about the "Monte Carlo Spending Behavior & Portfolio Characteristics" section of the PDF Reports under "Inputs and Assumptions" that I hope you can answer.

There is a heading called "Choice of Discretionary Spending Behavior: XXXX". In mine XXXX says Cautious because that's the spending behavior I chose. Under this heading it shows each Monte Carlo Portfolio with a set of columns. One of the columns is "Mean Real Rate of Return".

How do I model total capital loss using Monte Carlo?

I want to model my stock/bond ratio changing over time. E.g. I start off with 70/30 and expect to end with 0/100. I model this by using Monte Carlo and creating a portfolio for each decade or so with the set stock/bond ratio for that decade.

However a scenario I want to model is essentially the equivalent of upside investing. Which is, what happens if all my stock money (including the principal) is lost at a specific point in time? I would model this by specifying an investment in one of the portfolios that has effectively a -1 return.

Are Monte Carlo asset returns real or nominal?

In the Monte Carlo/Build Portfolios dialog each asset in 'Asset class' has its "Average Real Return" listed.

But when hitting the 'new' button the 'Define a new asset' screen, question 2, states "Specify average nominal rate of..."

Obviously Nominal != Real but in fact whatever number I enter in the 'Define a new asset' dialog in the question 2 as nominal shows up in the Monte Carlo/Build Portfolios dialog as 'Average Real Return'.

So which is it? Is the number nominal or real? Either one, one of the dialogs has to be wrong so it would be good if that was fixed.

Why are the Monte Carlo results so low initially?

If you look at the help manual, page 61, you see that ALL Monte Carlo results are Less than the TIPS or projected. There is something I'm really missing. How is this possible and what does it mean? Is it really possible that all (95%) trajectories with stock end up worse than TIPS? That seems implausible.


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