Issue arising when I switch from conservative to cautious spending
When I create a report assuming conservative spending (zero real investment return), my Monte Carlo results (at page 128) show that the "Zero Real Return" and the "Specified Mean Real Return" are the same. That makes sense because my specified mean real return (with conservative spending) was zero. However, when I change to cautious spending (half of the mean real return), the results seem puzzling. The "Specified Mean Real Return" rises (which makes sense because I now assume that this return will be half the mean instead of zero), but the "Zero Real Return" now becomes higher than it was under the conservative spending scenario (when I would think they would be the same), and it is now higher than the Specified Mean Real Return (when I would think is would have to be below the Specified Mean Real Return). Can someone explain this to me?
Comments
dan royer
Mon, 03/04/2019 - 10:48
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I'm not sure. I'd have to ask
I'm not sure. I'd have to ask the engineers. I agree that it seems this zero real return should stay the same.
Dan
pbronsteen
Thu, 03/07/2019 - 09:12
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Hi Dan: When you speak with
Hi Dan: When you speak with the engineers, kindly ask whether the issue that is causing this anomaly might also be impacting and therefore possibly rendering unreliable some of the more important Monte Carol distributions. For me the Monte Carlo distributions are the most valuable aspect of ESPlanner.
Peter
dan royer
Thu, 03/07/2019 - 09:18
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I will do, and see where we
I will do, and see where we are at on this one.
Dan
dan royer
Thu, 03/07/2019 - 21:29
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He said it was just an issue
He said it was just an issue with that one column, the real rate column which is used as a benchmark, and it does not impact the MC results. A fix for that issue is forthcoming.
You would really like the MC in MaxiFi; need to get you over there!
Dan
pbronsteen
Fri, 03/08/2019 - 11:07
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Thanks Dan. I look forward
Thanks Dan. I look forward to the fix. Would it be possible to notify me by email when the fix is available for download?
Regarding MaxFi, since I have just purchased an annual license for ESPlanner, thinking that the MC simulation in MaxFi was not complete, it probably makes sense for me to wait until next year to consider switching.
My thanks for your help,
Peter
dan royer
Thu, 03/21/2019 - 14:25
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Hi Peter, I can get you
Hi Peter, I can get you switched over now and work out any adjustments in price.
Again, that fix is forthcoming but remember that it's cosmetic and will not impact your results.
Let me get back with you on an idea for getting you over to MaxiFi. the MC there is really good.
Dan