Limiting Total Spending/Consumption

I have created a simple Jack and Sally Sprat planner file to experiment with the impacts of changes on net worth, spending, returns, etc.

I set inflation to zero for the base case and kept returns at 6%; not real world but a clean starting point;

The Sprats have $100K per year in cash flow income from SS and an annuity. They have $1M in their asset account (under mutual funds for simplicity sakes) and zero in retirement accounts to create a true base case.

I want to have them spend their cash flow of $100K plus the proceeds from their investments but never touch the principal of $1M. So in this case it would be $160K per year. How can I set ESP up to do that? Fixed $ Reserve fund?

Thanks in advance for trying to help.

Steve

Comments

dan royer's picture

It's kind of hard to visualize in the abstract without looking at the report which would make it much easier to explain, but I think I can here.

The $160K per year would be about the amount if the DO spend down the 1M through age 100.

I think you can just give them a 1M special expenditure due in their last year of life (this would be the payment out to their estate or children or whatever). Set it in today's dollars. This will cause them to not save anything and spend that 60K of regular asset income each year. It would reduce their discretionary spending from 160K to 144K or thereabouts.

I'd have to stare at such a model for a bit to think if their are downsides here, but I think this is what you are wanting to model. You are assuming, I assume, that the annuities are 100% inheritable and good in today's dollars through the end of life. This is what it would take to not create a life insurance need.

Perhaps the reserve fund would do the same thing, but I don't think so because there would be no way I don't think to get the proceeds from the reserve fund back into their economy without a lot of special receipts etc.

Somewhat confused...
1. I don't wnat to spend down the $1M through age 100
2. Why would discretionary spending move from 160K to 144k if the 1M is giving a 6% return to be added to the contant 100K/yr cash flow?

The manual says (on page 13) "After a reserve fund has assets, these assets no longer are included as regular assets, but are shown instead as reserve fund savings. This prevents them from being used for consumption smoothing.

This is what I'm trying to do; put the $1M in an area protected from smoothing and therefore, consumption, while only having the payout of the annual rate of return going to consumption. So the $1M stays constant to be handed over to the estate when both parties pass away and the $60K per year is added to the $100K being earned in other ways. This keeps the nest egg constant and continues to fund the lifestyle.

BTW, this is a personal solution I'm trying to construct. I am not an advisor so there is no client except myself.

Thanks again for the assistance. I'm trying to correctly harness the power of this tool and limiting consumption so all $$ aren't smoothed away to zero at end of life is a sticking point.

Steve

dan royer's picture

Right. I'm not spending the 1M in the model I suggested (well, not until the final year when it it "spent" by giving it away or whatever--that is, it's never used for discretionary spending).

But you have 100K in income plus the 60K in interest income from the 1M). So, yes, that's 160K. But you have $13,423 in taxes and $2,518 in Medicare Part B so that leaves--to be precise given the model I just created:

$159,992 total income
-13,243 taxes
-2,518 medicare B
144,231 (left over for discretionary spending)

Obviously this would be lower discretionary spending if you count for taxes and insurance on the home, or rent.

This way of looking at it above is very simple as far as the results go.

You are right that if you use the reserve fund, and you are right that if you set it to maintain that 1M balance in today's dollars all the way down at 6% return and no inflation, then it will spill back to you regular assets 60K per year. But using that method, the program will put you on a Saving pattern and it will eventually give the 1M back to the family in the last year to spend. So that will be a receipt. But in anticipation of this receipt which the family is going to now spend (that's the way the reserve fund works--it eventually hands it back to you. To model otherwise you have to create an expense as I did in my model). But now ESPlanner has a peculiar problem: namely a 1M receipt in the last year of life. So it's going to do it's best to smooth discretionary spending up to that point and it's going to go on a saving / dissaving pattern creating more taxes, including AMT and FICA for high income and in the end it becomes a discretionary spending 118,546 through age 99 and then 1,028,579 discretionary at age 100.

If you create an expense in the last year and use the reserve fund, the discretionary spending is 119,867 because it still has you saving and dissaving creating a different tax pattern. I'd have to study it some more to figure
that out. I think it's because the 60K is counted twice or not at all something being carried over from the year 2014 maybe. I'd have to look.

I guess an important question is what happens to the 1M. Is it eventually spent by the household? Or is it handed off as a bequest? Makes a big difference. If not spent, then you have to create an expense to give it away.

You can also remove the special expenditure at the end and use the Estate bequest for 500K for each. This will give nearly the same results.

We may need Brain to weigh in! :)

dan royer's picture

Right. I'm not spending the 1M in the model I suggested (well, not until the final year when it it "spent" by giving it away or whatever--that is, it's never used for discretionary spending).

But you have 100K in income plus the 60K in interest income from the 1M). So, yes, that's 160K. But you have $13,423 in taxes and $2,518 in Medicare Part B so that leaves--to be precise given the model I just created:

$159,992 total income
-13,243 taxes
-2,518 medicare B
144,231 (left over for discretionary spending)

Obviously this would be lower discretionary spending if you count for taxes and insurance on the home, or rent.

This way of looking at it above is very simple as far as the results go.

You are right that if you use the reserve fund, and you are right that if you set it to maintain that 1M balance in today's dollars all the way down at 6% return and no inflation, then it will spill back to you regular assets 60K per year. But using that method, the program will put you on a Saving pattern and it will eventually give the 1M back to the family in the last year to spend. So that will be a receipt. But in anticipation of this receipt which the family is going to now spend (that's the way the reserve fund works--it eventually hands it back to you. To model otherwise you have to create an expense as I did in my model). But now ESPlanner has a peculiar problem: namely a 1M receipt in the last year of life. So it's going to do it's best to smooth discretionary spending up to that point and it's going to go on a saving / dissaving pattern creating more taxes, including AMT and FICA for high income and in the end it becomes a discretionary spending 118,546 through age 99 and then 1,028,579 discretionary at age 100.

If you create an expense in the last year and use the reserve fund, the discretionary spending is 119,867 because it still has you saving and dissaving creating a different tax pattern. I'd have to study it some more to figure
that out. I think it's because the 60K is counted twice or not at all something being carried over from the year 2014 maybe. I'd have to look.

I guess an important question is what happens to the 1M. Is it eventually spent by the household? Or is it handed off as a bequest? Makes a big difference. If not spent, then you have to create an expense to give it away.

You can also remove the special expenditure at the end and use the Estate bequest for 500K for each. This will give nearly the same results.

We may need Brain to weigh in! :)

There is a simple, but totally artificial way to do this.

I set up a family using Steve's inputs (and guessed at a few others). ESPlanner is set up to spend down nearly all assets by end of life. One exception is housing.

So...in the simple model, "current home" isn't populated at all (all zeros).

Select first change of home to the last year of life (I assumed it was the same for both of you) with $1M purchase price and 100% downpayment. Also, I set the cost of selling homes to 0% in assumptions.

This creates a report with:

$160,000 annual total income
$27,154 annual taxes (will vary by state, I used AL since it was the default)
$2,518 Medicare Part B premiums
$130,328 annual consumption
$1,000,000 in Regular assets each year until the last year of life when you buy the house (simulated to preserve $1M) and a constant net worth (in real dollars) of $1M.

In real life, I'd use another method. Still...this shows what you are trying to model.

Best,
Brian

Thanks to both of you for your great comments; I do appreciate it and am getting better at understanding what each move means to my cash flow and consumption. Here's a few comments back...

Dan - On the 160K vs 144K, I was doing everything in an untaxed and un-inflated world
just to see the cash flow so I agree and understand your 144K is the same. I will use the bequest method to tag the $1M at the end so it doesn't become part of the saving/dissaving thing I'm seeing occur in those latter years.

Brian - I see your methodology and understand why it works; I will not use it because the housing thing is a different part of what I need to solve for. If we stay in our home for another 40 years, it will rise in value to around an $8M asset using even a 3.6% rate. (You both helped me yesterday understand how to move move business proceeds to pay off the mortgage that keeps the house $$ clean.)That's one reason I'm trying to get the cash flows and consumption fixed first. We also have disbursements, inheritances and future real estate sales to consider and have only the cash flow generated by these be consumed rather than smoothing the entire value. Now I know to place each of these into the Reserve account to protect the principal so we can consider what lifestyle we can afford and taxes we will be bearing in future years.

I can also add in an inflation rate to better reflect reality. Next week I'll take on the alternate investment scenarios found in the Plus version of the software.

Thanks again. (and especially thanks for the speedy responses)

More questions to follow I'm sure.

Steve

P.S. One question - Is my stuff more complicated that others? I checked the knowledge base and question forum but see nothing related in prior questions on limiting consumption.

Hi Steve,

This helps to better understand what you are trying to accomplish. Here's my 2c...

First, it seems like you are trying to properly account for your full financial situation and then "optimize" your profile to increase your standard of living, manage your risks, and reach end of life with a certain end state in mind.

There's no single right way to do this. I'd try to input all of my data with "reasonable" choices throughout. After playing with this, once you are decently happy, call this your "core" profile.

Then, you can add/edit over time (which literally could take years) to fine tune and/or optimize your information. Perhaps you want to add health insurance in retirement, determine if purchasing long-term care insurance is right for you and add this to your profile, evaluate moving closer to grandkids, bequests, potentially purchase longevity insurance, optimize your Social Security choices when combined with the rest of your profile, use Monte Carlo to model your investments, model converting to a Roth IRA, different annuity options, contingent planning and any number of other options you may consider. You may also want to do "what if" analysis to see what happens if reality is better/worse than your assumptions and develop a "range of reasonable" estimates, implement a "safety factor" using the approach I mentioned above, etc. I've spent a lot of effort trying to "optimize" profiles to get the most benefit out of them given a set of financial levers.

Don't try to do all of this in the first few weeks. This is a complex space and will take time to get it right for your specific situation. As you've seen, optimizing one area has an impact on other areas. With a push of effort like you are making now, you should be able to get "in the neighborhood". Over time, I expect you'll make significant changes to your profile, if you stick with this, as you research and think through specific areas. The end result will be worth it. Just last week, our second "optimization challenge" finished. The profile was increased by ~10%. I have no doubt you will be able to do the same or better to yours over time.

Your profile isn't necessarily more complicated than others although it does sound like it will end up being fairly comprehensive. This forum is also somewhat new and didn't bring over a lot of old posts that were less relevant. Look for living standard or safety factor and you'll see some posts on living on less than ESPlanner recommends. Digging through the forum takes time, but is a very helpful resource.

Best,
Brian

Brian

Thanks for the thoughtful response. We know we're in a pretty good situation but as a math guy, I want to optimize so we can take advantage of the situation we have. I'm too risk averse to accept a plan that smooths all of my money away on the last year of life. I'm ok with having some money to turn over to our children at the end to help them improve their retirements which will probably coincide with our end of life times, similar to what we are seeing from our own parents.

After doing a true ES Plan using the tool over the past two days, I realized, it was too complicated and all encompassing for me to rush in and have all of my cash flows and inputs all entered at the same time. Today, I took a step back to figure out the spending/consumption/cash flow for a ficticious family that closely resembles my situation leaving real estate and inflation out to more fully understand how to optimize what we envision our life to be. Thanks to Dan and you, I now understand that portion and can now go back to my personal plan and make the adjustments and inputs that will give a better picture. I am doing exactly what you suggest about "reasonable" inputs and trying to get to a "core" profile. From there, I will investigate the financial investment modeling.

We are actually lucky in that my long term employer bought me fully paid life insurance policy and lifetime LT health care. This eliminates some things like "longevity" insurance or other LT products that might be expensive.

I think it's good to set the tool aside every now and then and come back to it; I have put in a bunch of extensive notes so I can remember what I did when I take some time away from the product.

Also, I read the SS tome by Kotlikoff and others about "Get what's yours" which got me going in this direction.

Thanks again,

Steve

Here's a much more realistic option, that is simple to implement and very flexible. It's the standard of living approach that I've mentioned in other posts.

In this approach, (ignoring the housing info from my last post), go to Assumptions, Std of Living tab. Set your Living Standard Index value to a very high number in your last year of life. I started with 1000, then played around for a few minutes to settle at 868 (in my model, yours will be different). This leads to:

Consumption $130,317
Regular assets between $1,000,011 to $1,000,787
Total income between $160,000 to $160,047

Edit - Steve, I posted this before seeing your response immediately above.

Edit #2 - If you turn off taxes (set Federal/State taxes to decline 100% in 2015 per Dan's post below), then change the living standard to 735 in your last year of life (in my model), it's almost a perfect fit for keeping $1M in regular assets and $160,000 annual income with $157,482 for consumption.

Best,
Brian

dan royer's picture

I don't know. It doesn't seem much more complicated I guess. The reserve fund is used by people and I've seen questions about how to use that.

The limiting consumption question may be a bit of an outlier, but it's maybe not clear to me what is meant by that. Nobody in real life would ever want to limit consumption until age 100 and then live one's final year on the planet like a millionaire. I have seen people say they want to limit consumption in order to give away a large lump sum to their children and in that case it's a simple model I described where you create a special expense in the final year. That both lowers lifetime consumption and it provides the gift going outside the family economy in the last year. A bequest could be used there, but the problem with a bequest is that it designed to be available in the event of the death in ANY year. Many people say: No, I don't want to leave a million dollars if I die next year and I'm not willing to insure for that possibility. However, if I do make it to 100, then I would be willing to leave a million or whatever I have left. So that's how the future special expenditure would work.

I'm not sure which of those things you were wanting to model.

Yes, I didn't change the tax rate to zero in my model.

Dan

The limiting consumption question becomes important if you don't know how long you're going to live or at what level of fitness, health or mobility. A program that routinely forces a full spend of resources by the estimated end of life by smoothing the use of resources creates the potential for a result that is not reasonable. The worst outcome I could imagine is outliving your money due to a belief there was adequate resources to spend at a certain level and then be disappointed in later years when it's too late to adjust. My brother strongly encouraged my parents to work two more years (correctly) so they wouldn't out-live their savings/SS benefits.

With ES Planner, to avoid that or control it and move the resources to other years, we have to out think the tool and do things like "reserve funds" or "std of living" to get the intended results. Note: I'm not bashing the product or complaining but I think some of these things could be front end inputs that would make the necessary adjustments for most consumers to get a snap shot of their situation. I think many people will not dig in and understand these options and will be disappointed with their results.

I'm going to understand it and that's why I will continue to do the work and I truly appreciate the support you are both giving me.

Thanks

Steve

Hi Steve,

You may be interested in this post/comments:

https://www.esplanner.com/question/smooth-standard-living-sol-vs-sol-cha...

Best,
Brian

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