monte carlo

variance in monte carlo results

Every time I run the monte carlo simulation I get different results - I assume this is expected since the random numbers used to generate the results are different on each run. However I find the differences are significant enough that I cant rely on the results for future retirement planning. After 20 years one run generates a 50th percentile living standard of 114K per year, a second rerun of the same inputs generates a 50th percentile living standard of 122K per year. I can imagine that this is not a bug, but is just the way monte carlo simulations work.

Are there plans to add more asset classes?

Are there any plans to add more asset classes to the "build portfolios" portion of the Monte Carlo planning method? For those of us who do not have access to Dimensional Funds, the options are very limited. I'd like to have access to historical data for Large Cap Value, Large Cap Core, Large Cap Growth, Mid Cap Value, Mid Cap Core, Mid Cap Growth, Small Cap Value, Small Cap Core, Small Cap Growth. I'd also like to see separate options for short, intermediate, long term bond funds in both the government and corporate sectors. Thanks!

Monte Carlo Investing-Implement Portfolios

Just working through the Monte Carlo simulations and excited to be getting some data but first have a question about "Implement Portfolios" folder.

So i have 7 accounts. 6 tax sheltered (3 each for my wife and myself that are tax sheltered) and one open joint account.

This section asks me in what years do i want to draw from each account?

Fair enough but i have no idea!

So my two questions?

Monte Carlo Percentile Distributions

I'm using the Monte Carlo simulation with Conservative Spending to assess the risk that my plan won't meet basic living requirements far into the future. To do that, I'm looking in the Monte Carlo results at the Percentile Distributions of both Living Standard and Income. Specifically, I'm looking at the 5% column to get an idea of the worst case.

The worst case doesn't look very realistic.

Monte Carlo and Conservative Spending

I am not clear on what the Monte Carlo simulations are estimating when I use the Conservative Spending option. Can someone explain, perhaps by taking one simulation for one year, and indicating what assumptions are used to generate the living standard and real asset income? For example, is asset income generated assuming the real rate of return (which appears to be the case) or a zero real rate (which is used in the non-Monte Carlo portion of the PDF report)?

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