Questions on Monte Carlo Changes in 2.36 and 2.37.

After reading through the release notes in 2.36 and 2.37 and looking at my Monte Carlo reports after recently installing 2.37.2 I have the following questions I hope you can answer:

1. Looks like the Distribution and Range reports were eliminated as they do not appear on a report run and the User manual no longer describes them. The release notes say reports were simplified, but not eliminated. Why were they eliminated?

2. On my machine the Monte Carlo reports take much longer to run with the default of 200 runs. Is this why the default number of runs were lowered to 200? Why are they taking so much longer?

3. The release notes say there is a new option to choose between the old and new Monte Carlo process. I could not find this option. Please tell me where it is.

4. I noticed a new Trajectory Summary report. I have these questions about it:
A. How do interpret and use this report?
B. What does the Coefficient Variation mean and how do interpret it?
C. How do I know what is a good and bad Coefficient Variation?

5. This question is not necessarily related to the recent Monte Carlo changes since I noticed this in old reports also...
Background: I have always had the understanding with the Trajectory Reports that you interpret them by looking down the columns and not necessarily across because they show a range of returns over lifetime rather than across a year. Also, the sum of a column represents the lifetime of returns for the Monte Carlo economy/run in that column. The sums of the 5 columns should increase going from left to right (or going from very low to very high returns).
The question: I have always noticed that on my Living Standard Trajectory report (the one I typically look at) the sums of the columns do indeed increase (and always have) going from very low to very high. But in my Regular Assets Trajectory report and my Retirement Trajectory Report the sums do not increase going from very low to very high (on current and older releases). Could there be a valid explanation for this? If yes, what is the explanation? Or is something likely not working in the report generation?

Thanks,
TomInDenver

Comments

Its been a week and no response to my questions. Maybe you can answer 1 question a day or the easiest to hardest?

dan royer's picture

I'll hit them up again for an answer.

dan royer's picture

Kotlikoff replied:

Dan, Please tell him to run the old MC for now and that we are fixing some issues in the new MC now and hope to have a new version ready in a few weeks, at least in MaxiFiPlanner. He can call me for a precise discussion of what we found that we don't like.

Tom, I can give you his number if you like. Larry would be glad to talk with you.

Dan

I am good running the old MC for now, but one of my questions (#3) was how do I run the old one? I can't find the option to run the old vs the new. Dan, can you please just let me know how to run the old MC?

Help > About > Options> uncheck the box.

Dan, based on Kotlikoff's reply above, does this mean MC is coming to MaxiFi soon? (Other than missing the forum, I really like the new package, especially the ease of use for the new profiles and compare features.)

dan royer's picture

Yes, they are working on it now. Ed is getting the user interface ready, but there seems to be some long discussion about the math behind the MC that is over my head. I think it could be a few months yet before we see it in MaxiFi.